US Politics - Trump Policy Specials (4)

Will US cease to be a full NATO member in 2025?

4/20/25 4:00 AM

Will US leave NATO?

• Yes +1200
• No -6600

According to NATO's list of states with full membership.

Will there be a US government shutdown in 2025?

4/21/25 1:00 AM

Govt Shutdown in 2025?

• Yes +150
• No -200

Partial or full shutdown as reported by Associated Press.

Will there be a US recession in 2025?

4/28/25 12:00 AM

US Recession?

• Yes -175
• No +135

Recession = two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Applies from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 inclusive.

Who will buy TikTok (US Unit)?

5/4/25 4:00 AM

Who will buy TikTok?

Show More

• Oracle +140
• Larry Ellison +180
• Alexis Ohanian +400
• Perplexity AI +400
• Amazon +450
• Microsoft +500
• Meta +750
• Frank McCourt +1200
• Elon Musk +1500
• MrBeast +1800
• Rumble +2000
• Steve Mnuchin +2500
• Sam Altman +4000
• Walmart +4000
• X (Twitter) +4000

Applies to US unit acquisition/merger. TikTok announcement of agreement will count for settlement. Dead heat rules may apply. Bookmaker decision final. Others on request.

US Politics - Gubernatorial Elections (1)

California: 2026 Gubernatorial Election Winner

4/21/25 12:00 AM

California Governor 2026

Show More

• Katie Porter +125
• Kamala Harris +165
• Eleni Kounalakis +600
• Antonio Villaraigosa +800
• Rick Caruso +1000
• John Cox +1400
• Steve Garvey +1400
• Karen Bass +2000
• Adam Schiff +2200
• Tim Walz +2200
• Ron Reagan +4000

All in, run or not. Others on request.

Politician Specials - Donald Trump Specials (2)

Trump President Exit Date

4/27/25 4:00 AM

Trump Exit Date

• 2025 +800
• 2026 +800
• 2027 +800
• 2028 +700
• 2029 or later -300

Date that Donald Trump next officially ceases to be US President.

Donald & Melania: Year of Divorce

6/30/25 3:00 AM

Year Of Divorce

• 2025 +800
• 2026 +1000
• Not before 2027 -1000

Applies to the date of finalised divorce.

US Politics - US Presidential Election 2028 (3)

US Presidential Election 2028 - Winning Party

10/31/26 4:01 AM

Winning Party

• Republican -135
• Democrat +110
• Independent +5000

US Presidential Election 2028 - Nominee Match-Ups

1/1/28 5:00 AM

Nominee Match-Ups

• Ron DeSantis (Republican) vs Gavin Newsom (Democrat) +1600
• Ron DeSantis (Republican) vs Michelle Obama (Democrat) +3000

Either candidate to be the official nominee of Party quoted/run against each other for the 2028 POTUS.

US Presidential Election 2028 - Odds to Win

11/8/28 3:00 AM

Winner

Show More

• JD Vance +275
• Gavin Newsom +1400
• Josh Shapiro +1600
• Donald Trump Jr. +1800
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +2000
• Gretchen Whitmer +2000
• Pete Buttigieg +2000
• Tulsi Gabbard +2500
• Andy Beshear +3000
• Michelle Obama +3000
• Rick Scott +3000
• Ron DeSantis +3000
• Tim Scott +3000
• Tucker Carlson +3000
• Wes Moore +3000
• Elon Musk +3500
• JB Pritzker +3500
• Kamala Harris +3500
• Mark Kelly +3500
• Nikki Haley +4000
• Paul Ryan +4000
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +4000
• Tom Cotton +4000
• Vivek Ramaswamy +4000
• Brian Kemp +5000
• Dan Crenshaw +5000
• Doug Burgum +5000
• Dwayne Johnson +5000
• Glenn Youngkin +5000
• Hakeem Jeffries +5000
• Ivanka Trump +5000
• Mark Cuban +5000
• Jamie Dimon +6000
• Tim Walz +6000
• Aaron Rodgers +7500
• Jon Stewart +8000
• Joe Rogan +10000
• Jill Biden +12500
• Joe Biden +15000
• Dana White +20000
• LeBron James +20000
• Taylor Swift +20000
• Travis Kelce +20000

Canadian Politics - 45th Federal Election (3)

Federal Leaders' English-Language Debate

4/17/25 11:00 PM

To Be Mentioned by Mark Carney During the Debate

Show More

• Trump 3+ times -1400
• Tariffs 3+ times -1100
• Carbon Tax -700
• Pipeline -575
• Trudeau -190
• Immigration 3+ times -140
• French 3+ times +155
• Elon or Musk +155
• Hockey +200
• Elbows Up +210
• AI or Artificial Intelligence +300
• Land Reform +375
• Doug or Ford +425
• Crypto or Bitcoin +2200

Federal Leaders' English-Language Debate

4/17/25 11:00 PM

To Be Mentioned by Pierre Poilievre During the Debate

Show More

• Immigration 3+ times -375
• Trump 3+ times -850
• French 3+ times +160
• Tariffs 3+ times -1100
• Elon or Musk +800
• Land Lumber +245
• Carbon Tax -1600
• Common Sense -450
• Pipeline -1100
• Canada First -750
• India or Indian EVEN
• Trudeau -9500
• AI or Artificial Intelligence +155
• Crypto or Bitcoin +1500

Prime Minister After Next Election

4/28/25 2:00 PM

PM After Election

• Mark Carney -375
• Pierre Poilievre +265

First officially appointed after next election. Caretaker will not count. Others on request.

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Next Government of Canada

• Liberal Majority -145
• Liberal Minority +450
• Conservative Majority +600
• Conservative Minority +375
• Any Other Result +15000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Number of seats Bloc Quebecois win in Canadian Election?

Show More

• ≤9 +525
• 10-15 +375
• 16-20 +155
• 21-25 +325
• 26-30 +550
• 31+ +1800

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Number of seats Liberals win in Canadian Election

Show More

• <100 +1500
• 100-119 +3500
• 120-139 +4500
• 140-149 +1500
• 150-159 +950
• 160-169 +950
• 170-179 +950
• 180-189 +350
• 190-210 +190
• >210 +450

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Number of seats NDP win in Canadian Election?

Show More

• ≤9 -250
• 10-15 +205
• 16-20 +3000
• 21-25 +7500
• 26-30 +7500
• 31+ +12500

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Number of seats the Green Party wins in Canadian Election?

Show More

• 0 +350
• 1 +120
• 2 +245
• 3 +1000
• 4 +2500
• 5+ +15000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Number of seats the PPC wins in Canadian Election?

Show More

• 0 -5000
• 1 +2500
• 2 +7500
• 3 +7500
• 4 +10000
• 5+ +25000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Number seats Conservatives win in Canadian Election?

Show More

• <100 +1100
• 100-119 +425
• 120-139 +170
• 140-149 +700
• 150-159 +700
• 160-169 +1000
• 170-179 +1000
• 180-189 +2000
• 190-210 +3000
• >210 +2000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Show More

• Conservatives by >12% +3500
• Conservatives by 9-12% +3500
• Conservatives by 6-9% +2000
• Conservatives by 3-6% +1500
• Conservatives by 0-3% +425
• Liberals by 0-3% +300
• Liberals by 3-6% +260
• Liberals by 6-9% +425
• Liberals by 9-12% +1000
• Liberals by 12% +3500
• Any Other Result +10000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Star Candidate Specials

Show More

• Chi Nguyen to win Spadina—Harbourfront -100000
• David Myles to win Fredericton—Oromocto -100000
• Ellis Ross To Win Skeena—Bulkley Valley -100000
• Evan Solomon to win Toronto Centre -100000
• Gregor Robertson To Win Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby -100000
• Helena Konanz to win Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay -100000
• John-Paul Danko to win Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas -100000
• Mark Gerretsen to win Kingston and the Islands -100000
• Nathalie Provost to Win Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville -100000
• Anthony Germain to win Terra Nova—The Peninsulas -9500
• Peter Yuen to win Markham—Unionville -2000
• Amarjeet Sohi To Win Edmonton Southeast -600
• Yves-François Blanchet to win Beloeil—Chambly -400
• Mandy Gull-Masty to win Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik — Eeyou -170
• Stephen Fuhr To Win Kelowna -150
• Brad Fournier to Win Edmonton West +140
• Ruth Ellen Brosseau to Win Berthier-Maskinongé +160
• Elizabeth May to win Saanich-Gulf Islands -115
• Maja Tait to win Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke +600
• Ryan Leef to win Yukon +950
• Priti Obhrai-Martin to Win Calgary East +1200
• Bryan Paterson to win Kingston and the Islands +1600
• Alexis Deschênes to win Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj +1800
• Colin Plant to win Saanich-Gulf Islands +1800
• Djaouida Sellah to win Honoré—Mercier +1800
• François Choquette to win Drummond +1800
• Garry Keller to win Nipissing—Timiskaming +1800
• Greg Brady to win Ajax +1800
• Lisa Roberts To win Halifax +1800
• Paul Manly to win Nanaimo—Ladysmith +1800
• Raymond Côté to win Beauport—Limoilou +1800
• Rémi Massé to win Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup — Kataskomiq — Témiscouata +1800
• Trisha Estabrooks to win Edmonton Centre +1800
• Ève Péclet to win Outremont +1800
• Mike de Jong To Win Abbotsford-South Langley +2500
• Maxime Bernier to win Beauce +2800
• Anne-Marie Zajdlik to Win Guelph +7500

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Turnout in 2025 Canadian Federal Election?

Show More

• <16m +3000
• 16-17m +800
• 17-18m +325
• 18-19m +270
• 19-20m +300
• 20-21m +285
• >21m +400

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

Show More

• Liberal Party -160
• Conservative Party +115
• New Democratic Party +15000
• Bloc Québécois +20000
• Green Party +20000
• People's Party +20000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which Party wins 2nd most seats in Canadian election?

Show More

• Conservative Party -250
• Liberal Party +195
• Bloc Québécois +10000
• New Democratic Party +10000
• Green Party +10000
• People's Party +10000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which Party wins 3rd most seats in Canadian election?

Show More

• Bloc Québécois -950
• New Democratic Party +500
• Conservative Party +7500
• Liberal Party +7500
• People's Party +25000
• Any Other Party +50000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Alberta?

• Conservative Party -20000
• Liberal Party +5000
• New Democratic Party +20000
• Green Party +25000
• People's Party +25000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in British Columbia?

• Liberal Party -230
• Conservative Party +160
• New Democratic Party +10000
• Green Party +20000
• People's Party +20000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Manitoba?

• Conservative Party -190
• Liberal Party +155
• New Democratic Party +10000
• Any Other Party +20000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in New Brunswick?

• Liberal Party -900
• Conservative Party +550
• New Democratic Party +10000
• Any Other Party +20000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador?

• Liberal Party -2000
• Conservative Party +900
• New Democratic Party +10000
• Any Other Party +25000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Northwest Territories?

• Liberal Party -10000
• Conservative Party +1800
• New Democratic Party +7500
• Any Other Party +25000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Nova Scotia?

• Liberal Party -1000
• Conservative Party +600
• New Democratic Party +10000
• Any Other Party +25000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Nunavut?

• New Democratic Party -125
• Liberal Party EVEN
• Conservative Party +3500
• Any Other Party +20000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which Party wins most seats in Ontario?

• Liberal Party -800
• Conservative Party +400
• New Democratic Party +10000
• Green Party +20000
• People's Party +20000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Prince Edward Island?

• Liberal Party -2000
• Conservative Party +950
• Any Other Party +10000
• New Democratic Party +10000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Quebec?

Show More

• Liberal Party -2000
• Bloc Québécois +1400
• Conservative Party +1800
• People's Party +15000
• New Democratic Party +7500
• Green Party +20000
• Any Other Party +30000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Saskatchewan?

• Conservative Party -20000
• Liberal Party +7500
• New Democratic Party +10000
• Any Other Party +20000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Which party wins most seats in Yukon?

• Liberal Party -2000
• Conservative Party +950
• New Democratic Party +7500
• Any Other Party +12500

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Will Jagmeet Singh lose his seat?

• Yes -575
• No +360

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Will Mark Carney lose his seat?

• Yes +1200
• No -6600

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat?

• Yes +800
• No -2000

45th Federal Election

4/28/25 11:00 PM

Prime Minister After Next Election

Show More

• Mark Carney (Liberal Party of Canada) -260
• Pierre Poilievre (Conservative Party of Canada) +200
• Jagmeet Singh (New Democratic Party) +8000
• Elizabeth May (Green Party of Canada) +50000
• Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc Québécois) +100000
• Maxime Bernier (People's Party of Canada) +100000

European Politics - European Union Specials (3)

European Politics - Ukraine (2)

Politics - Irish Politics (3)

Politics - Scottish Politics (1)

UK Politics - UK General Election (3)

UK Politics - UK Party Leaders (3)